ES1! · E-mini S&P 500 · CME · RTH plan for Thu Jun 18, 2026
Overnight repair complete — now testing the supply wall
The FOMC flush was fully repaired overnight: spike base reclaimed, prior single prints filled, and price rebuilt value at yesterday's value-low. The day is not a chase-long setup yet; it is a repair into supply setup, with 7,578-7,582 as the gate.
Pre-open last
7,562.25
ON range
7,491-7,563.50
ON value
7,539.75-7,563.50
ON POC
7,556.25
20-EMA
7,518.25
VIX / VX1!
18.50
Daily ATR
106.75
Intraday
two-sided
↻ Overnight changed the problem
Last night was about whether the market could repair the FOMC damage. It did. Price reclaimed the 7,497 spike base, filled the 7,505/7,513 RTH single prints, and built fresh overnight value from 7,539.75 to 7,563.50. The new problem is overhead supply: yPOC 7,582 and yVAH/yHigh 7,600.75-7,605.75 are directly above the open.
RTH session bias
Bull 48%Neutral 28%Bear 24%
Bull structure is repaired, but trade location is into supply. Base case is buy 7,540-7,548, pay yourself into 7,565 / 7,578 / 7,582, and fade the first yPOC tag unless the tape proves acceptance with two 30m closes above 7,582.
Highest-probability scenario
G1ON-VAL dip buy -> yPOC fadeBULL
probability30%
Zone7,540-7,548 -> 7,578-7,582
StoryFirst rotation into ON VAL / yVAL holds, then price drives back to the wall. This is repair completing, not a breakout assumption.
SetupLong 7,540-7,548 · stop 7,531 · T 7,565 / 7,578 / 7,582
ConfirmFirst hour holds >= 7,539.75
Not financial advice. Levels are transcribed and normalized from the Jun 18 pre-open RTH plan: ON VAH 7,563.50 · ON POC 7,556.25 · ON VAL 7,539.75 · yPOC 7,582 · yVAH 7,600.75 · yVAL 7,540.50 · spike base 7,497 · VIX 18.50. Verify live price, VIX, yield reaction, and final RTH/ON levels before trading.